The Daily Forex

I was supposed to have published this entry last Friday but an unfortunate database glitch took my site down over the weekend. It was just as well, as the story has since evolved and I now have an excuse to post an updated entry

So, I was in the middle of conducting job interviews Friday afternoon when I was notified of the explosion at the Ayala Center’s Glorietta 2. I immediately interrupted my work, stepped out of my room, and saw my staff trying to contact our store located near the vicinity of the blast. They couldn’t get through at first but they finally raised the store’s staff via mobile phone. We were told that they evacuated the store in a panic - understandably enough as the explosion was scant meters away from their post - but they had the presence of mind to turn off their equipment, lock the doors, and regroup in good order. Fortunately, none of them where hurt.

Ayala Land, owner of the mall where the blast took place, promised to extend its assistance to the victims - who as of last count numbered 11 dead and 120 injured.

Manolo has done an excellent job of rounding up testimony from bloggers who witnessed the tragedy and comments from assorted pundits as well. Read Philippine Commentary’s excellent comments as well.

So what caused the explosion in the first place? Early reports said that a gas leak was the cause. Then, just hours after the blast, police top brass said that it was most likely caused by a bomb, a theory that gained credence with the publication of stories such as this one: Traces of C4 found at Makati blast site.

“Reuters reported that police sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said traces of C4 plastic explosives were found at the location. The bomb appeared to have been left near a cellphone repair shop at the bottom of an escalator, they said.”

Now, probers are revisiting the angle that the blast may have been the result of an accident after all, a theory that has gained strength after experts failed to find any bomb parts at the site.

“Investigators are now checking the possibility that a pressurized tank’s failure could have led to the explosion. Another possibility, investigators said, is that the methane gas from the septic tank added to the blast’s magnitude.”

Some experts from the University of the Philippines, however, quickly shot this idea down: ‘Makati blast not caused by methane-diesel mix’.

“Chemical engineering professors Ernesto dela Cruz and Wilfredo Jose, faculty members and students said it was unlikely that a leak from the tank containing thousands of liters of diesel at the mall’s basement caused the blast.

“The engineers said diesel is not a volatile substance and will not explode as a liquid at any rate. They said it has to be in a gaseous state and has to vaporize before it can explode.

“They said that for diesel to vaporize, it has to be heated to up to more than 200 degrees Celsius inside an engine.

“Dela Cruz, Jose and the others also said that it would also be impossible that methane gas that allegedly leaked from the mall’s septic tank caused the blast.

“The experts, however, said that methane will explode only if ignited. They said a mixture of five to 15 percent methane and 85 percent oxygen may explode but only if it set on fire.”

Ano ba talaga, Kuya? More help is on the way, courtesy of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Australian Federal Police, to help find out what caused the blast, and any final report about this incident should contain their imprimatur as well, if only to make it immune - largely immune anyway - against various conspiracy theories that are even now pinning the blame on the explosion on one group or the other. Let’s wait for the definitive word and in the meantime, refrain from blindly passing on unverified text messages about the next bomb target, as Ang Kape Ni LaTtEX strongly suggests.

The damage caused by the blast appears to be quite extensive. ABS-CBN News has some pictures taken by a camera phone in by a witness illustrating the same, and so does Disney Cute Land. Mike Abundo organized a similar, Flickr-based slideshow as well.

It goes without saying that Philippine retailers were the most adversely affected business sector in the wake of the blast. For example, my company suffered an 11 percent drop in business for this Friday to Sunday weekend period - prime shopping days at that - compared to revenues from previous weekends, although I must say that customer traffic rebounded somewhat on Sunday.

What about in the medium term? The explosion happened during the runup to the 2007 Christmas shopping season, which traditionally starts soon after the All Saints’ Day holidays. Indeed, at least two major Metro Manila malls started their respective pre-Christmas sales promotions on the day of the blast. Philippine consumers will definitely stay away from the malls in the next few days, and if the authorities don’t quickly restore confidence to an apprehensive populace, they may just decide to refrain from shopping for quite a while longer.

Philippine retailers are depending on Christmas season sales for a substantial portion of their 2007 revenues, and it is certainly not an appealing prospect for many of them - of us, I should say - to see our customers frightened so.

Cocktales says that the Glorietta 2 may remain closed until early next year, and reports the value of the damage to the facility alone at no less than PHP 100 million.

The Philippine stock market, as expected, did not take the blast news all too wel yesterdayl: Stocks down on explosion, Dow’s drop. Today’s trading, however, is another story: Shares firmer as PLDT, Ayala Land rebound.