- «broganblog.dailymail.co.uk»

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- «hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk»

- «www.thisismoney.co.uk»

Forget the high street, online shopping has boomed over the past few years as bargain hunters scour the internet for a deal.

The UK’s internet shopping market is estimated to be worth more than 42 billion this year, with more than 26 million people set to buy online, according to the industry body for e-commerce.

James Roper, cheif executive of the Interactive Media in Retail Group said: “The growth we’ve seen is staggering.

“The market’s incredibly strong and there’s no sign of it slowing its expansion.”

In June, overall online sales figures in the UK showed a 55% year-on-year increase.

The IMRG predict the average web shopper will spend 1,615 during 2007, together notching up 860 million goods deliveries.

In 2006 the internet shopping upturn was 13 times greater than the UK’s overall retail sector, market analyst Verdict has reported.

Mr Roper said two of the product areas experiencing the most rapid growth were clothing and electrical goods.

He said: “The expansion in these areas is extraordinary - in June electrical goods sales were up 92% year-on-year.

“Areas such as travel - flights and hotel bookings - went online early on and they’re already maxed out, but there’s still massive growth in other areas,” he added.

“But, to be honest, apart from a haircut, it’s hard to think of any type of product you can’t buy online now.”

Retailers are already starting to cut the size of their stores as the move from the high street and to the internet reduces the need for floor space.

Electrical retailer Dixons was one of the first companies to close all its stores and move its presence entirely on to the web last year.

But the traditional store is not dead yet.

Many experts believe consumers will be more attracted to shopping centres, malls and retail parks, where a mix of restaurants, cafes, cinemas, gyms and shops provide a sociable atmosphere.

Shopping centre owner Liberty International has reported strong results from its locations, which include the Metro Centre at Gateshead, last year, with the best trading during the Christmas period for three years.

Some facts about online shopping

&bull British shoppers spent 100 billion online in 12 years, according to Interactive Media in Retail Group (IMRG).

&bull Online sales for April 2007 hit 3.465 billion - around the same as London’s West End takes in a year, IMRG said.

&bull The UK’s internet shopping market is worth more than 21.4 billion, with more than 20 million people buying online in the last year, according the Office of Fair Trading (OFT).

&bull Nearly a third of those online shoppers spent more than 1,000 during the year, the OFT said.

&bull A book bought in April 1995 from WHSmith via CompuServe, a forerunner of the internet, is thought to be the UK’s first secure online shopping transaction, according to IMRG.

&bull There are ten million live listings on eBay.co.uk, the online auction website, at any one time, the website says.

&bull Almost a third (31%) of British eBay users wait until the last five minutes of a listing to place a bid; 9% hold out to the last 10 seconds, according to eBay.

&bull Nearly half of British people (43%) do not consider a purchase a bargain unless it is at least half price, eBay said.

&bull In 2003, a desperate father from Sevenoaks, Kent, broke the law by posting his kidney on eBay to finance special therapy for six-year-old daughter. It was later removed from the site, eBay said.

This little punch of people doing what at least can be described as organized crime, inlcuding many other identities like Rob, Grespi, Rick, Ghafour, Rasheid, Omar, and many more masks….all fake

They promote their signal service, fooling novice forex traders to count on them in trading the news. they have caused hundreds of people to lose big money. they even dare to promise you if you lose that they can blackmail the broker to get you your money back.

They have done that several times and we have seen traders burned by their flames, and they try to flame brokers too, some times succeed and others not. Google for felix combined with Oanda, interbankFX, FXCM, Forex.com, and any broker of your choice, you will see their scams, a replica used with tens of brokers over the past 3 years, and the victims, hundreds of traders who get broke.

See what I found about those bunch of crooks on the web, and don’t ask me, I have been also burned by these theives.

The email sent by Felix the bastard:

"Hi there

One of my full time forex trading buddies just had a serious problem happen. He had an account with Forex Broker | Forex Trading | Online Currency Trading < IBFX with $620,000 of real money in it. They went through some "technical difficulties", executed a bunch of trades that he didn’t execute, margin called him, e.t.c. Long story short, lost him $280,000 in a matter of days, because of "technical difficulties".

Then he spoke to the CEO of the company, who shook his hand, admitted that these were indeed technical difficulties, and he would take care of him.

Now, they are dropping the ball on him, saying that he is a beginner trader, and it was all his fault…I mean these guys opened some trades while this guy was out of town!

Having this website, I get a bunch of different complaining emails from people, and obviously I usually don’t email about people’s problems to you. But in all honesty, I know this guy very well personally, I’ve seen his account statements, and I know he is not bullshitting me. I mean this guy was making hundreds of thousands in forex, while I was still in high school, and didn’t even know what the word forex meant. And by the way, it’s not Tom or Rob…it’s somebody else.

Here is the real reason why I am emailing you. This guy has a lawsuit going against Interbank FX right now, he already has a federal attorney involved, and he is trying to shut these suckers down, in addition to getting some of his money back.

If you had an account with Interbank FX, and you also feel you got "screwed" by them, then perhaps you could add yourself to the lawsuit, and recover some of your losses, and put an extra complaint against them to get them shut down.

If you want to get involved in this or have some other helpful information for my friend, please don’t respond to this email, instead send an email with your story to interbankfxfraud@forexbastards.com

To Our Success!

-Felix Homogratus"

Sometime ago, Nina posted commentary on a few other posts she’d read on religion and personal finance, much of the content of which debated the relativity of the two to one another. The link between money and religion is an interesting and ancient one. Money is a child of the church, literally. Practicing religion arguably has an impact on personal finance, but even without a personal practice, micro and macroeconomics are steeped in the currency of the global states of various religions.

Of the original seventy-some medieval churches, there remain 36 in the British town in which I’m now living. They are beautiful; around almost every corner a looming gothic design is situated, including one massive Cathedral built by the intruding Normans in the eleventh century. Mandatory tithing and/or forced labor brought many of these architectural treasures into being. These two traditions – tithing and slavery — have accompanied western religion for centuries and are a major force in historical urban development, as well as fostering the stratification of class systems, and fueling serious personal gain for various ruling classes.

The induction of the first gold coins in history, those of King Croesus of Lydia (present-day part of Turkey) in 560 BC, marks both an interesting link to and departure point of money from its progenitor, the Church. The Museum of Money and Financial Institution’s website, A Brief History of Money and Religion, notes that “In the time of many gods, the temple was the treasury.” Money and religion were, in fact, inseparable. The site also offers a brief and incomplete etymology of the word gold, in part a derivative of an eighth century verb, gelten, meaning to sacrifice. Sacrifices were the original form of investment. The wealth of the spirit and financial well-being were not separate entities.

When these first gold coins were introduced, they bore the symbol of the highly sacred bull, the primary currency of exchange – via sacrifice – with the gods. The coins became the kick-off for and transition of consumerism, a shift from that of the consumption of sacrifice (god or priests consumed the sacrifices of man) to consuming by way of purchase; and the “progression” from barter to the use of money in currency between individuals ensued. Roman money likewise had its origin in a temple, that of Moneta, from which the word money comes.

The well-known story of Jesus in the marketplace is one commonly used in modern Christian sermons to encourage a specific Christian relationship with money, one that removes money from the sacred place of worship and maintains a spiritual existence separate from that of the “market,” and is indicative of the constant and universal battle to separate the two. Watch Jesus go nuts on this YouTube dramatization of those biblical events. However, other scriptures, like the one emphasized by this religion news service, encourage a ministry that goes out into the “marketplace” to extend spirituality to those in need, an integration of spirituality as opposed to a segregation. The language hints that the Church assumes a specific poverty in the lives of those focused on finance (or other external goals) and that those individuals are in need of some kind of intervention.

The Crusades and their concurrent “ministries”, which lasted from 1095 until 1291, were recruited for and employed as religious battles; yet they were just as accurately battles of capital and real estate. And, as the Wikipedia page on the Crusades affirms, “The Crusades had far-reaching political, economic, and social impacts, some of which have lasted into contemporary times.”

Also from the religion and money website: as late as the mid-1900s, bank designs were being modeled after ancient Greek temples. The historic parallel between money and religion seems to be tightly twisted into the major movements of both. In 1973, Nixon abandoned the gold standard for exchange rates, and money became a sign of a sign. The “Death of God,” phraseology borrowed from Nietszche, also occurred theologically around the same time, and involved the idea that transcendence as a potential in human reality had lost meaning to modern thinkers.

Transcendence by way of income has taken on new meaning for modern thinkers, however. Next week: more on the history of tithing and its modern implications.

Empty shelves in Caracas. Food riots in West Bengal and Mexico. Warnings of hunger in Jamaica, Nepal, the Philippines and sub-Saharan Africa. Soaring prices for basic foods are beginning to lead to political instability, with governments being forced to step in to artificially control the cost of bread, maize, rice and dairy products.

Record world prices for most staple foods have led to 18% food price inflation in China, 13% in Indonesia and Pakistan, and 10% or more in Latin America, Russia and India, according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Wheat has doubled in price, maize is nearly 50% higher than a year ago and rice is 20% more expensive, says the U.N. Next week the FAO is expected to say that global food reserves are at their lowest in 25 years and that prices will remain high for years.

Last week the Kremlin forced Russian companies to freeze the price of milk, bread and other foods until January 31, for fear of a public backlash with a parliamentary election looming. “The price of goods has risen sharply and that has hit the poor particularly hard,” said Oleg Savelyev, of the Levada Center polling institute.

India, Yemen, Mexico, Burkina Faso and several other countries have had, or been close to, food riots in the last year, something not seen in decades of low global food commodity prices. Meanwhile, there are shortages of beef, chicken and milk in Venezuela and other countries as governments try to keep a lid on food price inflation.

Boycotts have become commonplace. Argentinians shunned tomatoes during the recent presidential election campaign when they became more expensive than meat. Italians organized a one-day boycott of pasta in protest at rising prices. German leftwing politicians have called for an increase in welfare benefits so that people can cope with price rises.

“If you combine the increase of the oil prices and the increase of food prices then you have the elements of a very serious [social] crisis in the future,” said Jacques Diouf, head of the FAO, in London last week.

The price rises are a result of record oil prices, U.S. farmers switching out of cereals to grow biofuel crops, extreme weather and growing demand from countries India and China, the U.N. said Friday.

“There is no one cause but a lot of things are coming together to lead to this. It’s hard to separate out the factors,” said Ali Gurkan, head of the FAO’s Food Outlook program, Friday.

He said cereal stocks had been declining for more than a decade but now stood at around 57 days, which made global food supplies vulnerable to an international crisis or big natural disaster such as a drought or flood.

“Any unforeseen flood or crisis can make prices rise very quickly. I do not think we should panic but we should be very careful about what may happen,” he warned.

Lester Brown, president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute thinktank, said: “The competition for grain between the world’s 800 million motorists, who want to maintain their mobility, and its 2 billion poorest people, who are simply trying to survive, is emerging as an epic issue.”

Last year, he said, U.S. farmers distorted the world market for cereals by growing 14 million tons, or 20% of the whole maize (corn) crop, for ethanol for vehicles. This took millions of hectares of land out of food production and nearly doubled the price of maize. Bush this year called for steep rises in ethanol production as part of plans to reduce petrol demand by 20% by 2017.

Maize is a staple food in many countries which import from the U.S., including Japan, Egypt, and Mexico. U.S. exports are 70% of the world total, and are used widely for animal feed. The shortages have disrupted livestock and poultry industries worldwide.

“The use of food as a source of fuel may have serious implications for the demand for food if the expansion of biofuels continues,” said a spokesman for the International Monetary Fund last week.

The outlook is widely expected to worsen as agro-industries prepare to switch to highly profitable biofuels. according to Grain, a Barcelona-based food resources group. Its research suggests that the Indian government is committed to planting 14 million hectares (35 million acres) of land with jatropha, an exotic bush from which biodiesel can be manufactured. Brazil intends to grow 120 million hectares for biofuels, and Africa as much as 400 million hectares in the next few years. Much of the growth, the countries say, would be on unproductive land, but many millions of people are expected to be forced off the land.

This week Oxfam warned the European Union that its policy of substituting 10% of all car fuel with biofuels threatened to displace poor farmers.

The food crisis is being compounded by growing populations, extreme weather and ecological stress, according to a number of recent reports. This week the U.N. Environment Program said the planet’s water, land, air, plants, animals and fish stocks were all in “inexorable decline”. According to the U.N.’s World Food Program (WFP) 57 countries, including 29 in Africa, 19 in Asia and nine in Latin America, have been hit by catastrophic floods. Harvests have been affected by drought and heatwaves in south Asia, Europe, China, Sudan, Mozambique and Uruguay.

This week the Australian government said drought had slashed predictions of winter harvests by nearly 40%, or 4 million tons. “It is likely to be even smaller than the disastrous drought-ravaged 2006-07 harvest and the worst in more than a decade,” said the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

According to Josette Sheeran, director of the WFP, “There are 854 million hungry people in the world and 4 million more join their ranks every year. We are facing the tightest food supplies in recent history. For the world’s most vulnerable, food is simply being priced out of their reach.”

Food for Thought - Possible Scenarios

Experts describe various scenarios for the precarious food supply balance in coming years. An optimistic version would see markets automatically readjust to shortages, as higher prices make it more profitable once again to grow crops for people rather than cars.

There are hopes that new crop varieties and technologies will help crops adapt to capricious climactic conditions. And, if people move on to a path of eating less meat, more land can be freed up for human food rather than animal feed.

A slowdown in population growth would naturally ease pressures on the food market, while the cultivation of hitherto unproductive land could also help supply.

Yet fears for even tighter conditions revolve around deepening climate change, which generates worsening floods and droughts, diminishing food supplies. If the price of oil rises further it will make fertilizers and transport more expensive, and at the same time make it more profitable to grow biofuel crops.

Supply will be further restricted if fish stocks continue to decline due to overfishing, and if soils become exhausted and erosion decreases the arable area.

See Related: GLOBAL WARMING

See Related: WORLD POLITICS

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No Tags]]> http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/403/feed http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/401 http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/401#comments Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 admin A summer full of blockbuster movies helped give the Cineplex movie empirea record quarter, the company said Friday.

During the third quarter that ended in September, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, The Simpsons Movie, Ratatouille, and Transformers all got heavy exposure on the 1,315 screens owned by the Cineplex Entertainment Limited Partnership. Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund three-month chart

Cineplexsaid third-quarter attendance was 24.4 per cent higher than last year, total revenues climbed more than 22 per cent to $243.9 million, and net income surged 166 per cent to $24.8 million.

Concession revenue jumped almost 25 per cent as the average amount each patron spent roseto an average of $3.79.

“This is the best quarter on record for Cineplex Entertainment,” said CEO Ellis Jacob in a release. “The strength of the film product during the quarter and our focus on driving attendance to our theatres through strategic pricing initiatives is generatingprice results.”

Last week, an analyst at RBC Dominion Securities pegged Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund as among several trusts he consideredto be possible takeover targets.

The fund owns 76 per cent of Cineplex Entertainment LP.Cineplexis thelargest motion picture exhibitor in Canada, operating theatres under theCineplex Odeon, Galaxy and Famous Players brands.

No Tags]]> http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/401/feed http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/400 http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/400#comments Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 admin



Five $20 and $50 Money Currency Used in the Movie.

COA from Hollywood Prop Supply.

original / screen-used

movie props

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No Tags]]> http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/400/feed http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/399 http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/399#comments Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 admin Four-time World Superbike champion Carl Fogarty has decided not to return to racing as a team owner in 2008 after failing to find a major sponsor.

Fogarty had signed a deal with legendary Italian manufacturer MV Augusta but has decided to pull the plug on his race team activities.

Lack of sponsor: Carl Fogarty

Fogarty, whose team was previously backed by Petronas, told www.eurosport.com: “Everyone knows that this is a difficult time for motorcycle sponsorship. However, we hoped that the combination of my team with an iconic brand such as MV Agusta would have been an attractive proposition for potential sponsors both in the UK and abroad.

“Regrettably, despite the enormous excitement generated amongst motorcycle fans, this has not proved to be the case, leading us to the conclusion that the market will not support a professionally-run outfit of our size without significant financial input from a manufacturer.

“So I have decided to bring this chapter of my career to an end by putting our state-of-the-art facility at Burton, our race trailer and hospitality unit up for sale.”

MV are understood to be talking to former grand prix racer Kenny Roberts about moving his team from MotoGP to World Superbikes.

But as news of Fogarty’s decision was announced, BMW revealed they were moving into the World Superbike championship for the 2009 season.

BMW development vice president Peter Muller said: “In 2007 BMW returned to road racing with the sports boxer after more than 50 years.

“In 2008 we will continue our activities in the endurance category. At the same time we will be preparing our entry into the Superbike World Championship in 2009 with great intensity.”

No Tags]]> http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/399/feed http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/398 http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/398#comments Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 admin You are at the center of your own Web: What Google’s new Open Social means for you and me

Social networks boomed when kids — who have always called the friends they’ve just left at school as soon as they got home — moved to Web networks such as MySpace to stay in constant contact with all their friends at once. They establish their own profile pages and plaster them with links to what they like — their favorite people and music and books and TV, games to play, maps of where they’ve been, poll and surveys and sometimes even news headlines.

Adults, who often center more on the families we’ve built and live with, were late to this party, sidling in through professional networks such as LinkedIn before flooding into Facebook, which began as a college students-only hangout, but eventually had to include those who’d graduated, then anybody.

What’s important here is that social networking puts each of us at the very center of our own Web, surrounded by links we care about.

Google this week launched some free tools anyone can use to center that Web wherever we want it to be, not just inside Facebook or MySpace, and to expand the range of programs and information we nestle with.

Marc Andreesen — co-author of the original Netscape browser, now co-founder of the free Ning, where you can create your own free niche social network — explains Google’s new Open Social platform (Open Social: a new universe of social applications all over the web):

Open Social takes the Facebook platform concept and provides an open standard approach that can be used by the entire web. Open Social is an open way for everyone to do what Facebook has done… Open Social’s API is based entirely on Javascript. If you know HTML and Javascript today, you will be able to immediately use Open Social to turn your web applications and web sites into Open Social apps.

What’s a platform? A place to launch software. Windows is a platform, but so is the Web now — Google maps, Flickr, all these “Web services” run on a Web platform, using Web “APIs.”

What’s an API? Wikipedia: An application programming interface (API) is a source code interface that an operating system or library provides to support requests for services to be made of it by computer programs.

What does that mean? It means you can use programs without having to know how to write them. The best-known example may be map builders. You use Google maps and add your own markers, then put the map on your own site. You’ve used the Google Maps API to put your data on Google’s maps, and it connects back to Google to display the satellite views, etc. Without the API, you’d make the map on Google, then have to turn it into a photo — no clicking or zooming, no switching from satellite to map view, no sliding east or west to check out the neighborhood.

What’s a Facebook app? Display a slideshow, search for jobs, see your stock quotes, play games, share your iPod playlist, read news, vote for your favorite Jimi Hendrix song, all from a little box on your own Facebook page.

But Facebook is a closed “city.” If you click on a link to a Facebook page, it will lead to a “Join Facebook” page. You can’t view anything there without becoming a member — just like the original AOL, but free. But because Facebook is so big, developers have been learning new formats and writing little programs that work only inside Facebook.

Google’s Open Social API lets anyone make little programs that will work on any social network or your own Web pages, not just inside Facebook.

Make once, place everywhere: In earlier versions of projo.com, we used “server-side includes” on a lot of pages. That’s an obscure name for a bit of text or links we wanted to put on a lot of pages, and would probably be updating. Instead of copying the code to every page — and opening every page when we wanted to update the links — we just made one little page once, and “included” a link to it on every page. When we updated the “include,” it would change on every page that called it in automatically.

We still use some “includes” — the latest headlines, for each blog, for instance, are all on projo.com/blogs and selected ones are sprinkled on the homepage, sports and lifestyles pages. A server-side include displays its contents on pages on the same Web server. It doesn’t work anywhere else.

Open Social’s widgets — it can be the programs, headline feeds, games I mentioned above — can be placed all over the Web and inside networks and pages that support it. I could put it on this blog and on my profile page on all the networks I’ve joined.

Except — for now anyway — Facebook itself, which has a “closed” API — code for apps that run there only works inside its walled city. Don’t be too surprised if they give up on making everybody make two versions of cool programs, one for them and one for the rest of the Web. (Yes, Facebook breaks the Web. Boo, hiss.) TechCrunch says Google and Facebook are talking to each other already.

Google notes,

There are many websites implementing OpenSocial, including Engage.com, Friendster, hi5, Hyves, imeem, LinkedIn, MySpace, Ning, Oracle, orkut, Plaxo, Salesforce.com, Six Apart, Tianji, Viadeo, and XING.

Six Apart makes Movable Type, this blog’s software (which is itself preparing an open-source version that anyone can customize, due by year’s end), so I expect to be playing with this. I know html, and a little Javascript. If I teach myself a little more, I could write Open Social apps and try them out here.

Google’s OpenSocial API Blog launched today.

From Google’s Open Social FAQ:

How do I create social apps using OpenSocial?
Social apps are initially created in the same manner as Google Gadgets: with your favorite text editor or within the Google Gadget Editor. They then can be augmented with the OpenSocial JavaScript APIs, where they can fetch and post social data about friends and activities.

And,

Google’s gadget caching technology can ease your bandwidth demands should your app suddenly become a worldwide success.

Frankly, many Facebooks apps are a way to move the core functionality of a Web site onto a convenient spot on your own page, relieving you of the need to click a bookmark and letting you share the data. Many are frivolous, a developer playing with the code without really thinking about how useful or compelling the functionality or content is for the user.

Better ideas now have a way to become real anywhere.

What does it mean for a news site such as projo.com? We have a lot of trouble showing you all the news we gather. The Web site uses pages and menus and we hope you’ll click your way through them all to see what you want.

But you have to remember to come to the site, or to open your feed reader if you’ve subscribed to our blogs’ RSS feeds.

We could make “rivers of news” you could put right on your own page. Stories that published to an inside index would appear wherever you are as we publish them. You decide which stories you want to read, not editors pushing some to the front page and leaving others to be “discovered.”

And that’s just the first, most obvious application.

No Tags]]> http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/398/feed http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/397 http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/397#comments Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 admin Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

EUR/USD at New Record High on Carry Trade After Strong NFP

Initial reaction to the much stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll report is like what’s discussed before, carry trade dominates. Even though dollar is sent higher against the Japanese yen, resumption of carry trade activities, on anticipate of rally in US stock market, sends most yen crosses higher, which in turn overdone dollar’s strength. As a result, EUR/USD is lifted to new record high above 1.45 level again while other majors strengthens too. In Oct, US economy added 166k jobs, almost a double of expectation of 88k. Though, prior month’s job growth was revised lower from 110k to 96k. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7%.

USD/CAD dived to new multi-decade low right after release of much stronger than expected job report. Canadian economy added 63k jobs in Oct, much high than expectation of 12k. Unemployment rate dropped to new 33 years low of 5.8% vs expectation of 5.9%. The data reinforces the view that BoC is firmly on hold with no room for an early rate cut yet.

Swiss Franc continues to trend higher against dollar today on the back of stronger than expected inflation data from Switzerland. CPI accelerated to 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 1.2%, hitting a 14 month high. SNB Roth has emphasized last week that it’s not correct to assume SNB is on hold. Today’s data prompted speculation that SNB will hike again in near term.

Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY) here.

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4390; (P) 1.4438; (R1) 1.4473; More

EUR/USD’s rally resumes to new record high of 1.4525 in early US session. However, with key medium term resistance of 1.4535 cluster resistance (95 high and 200% projection of 1.3262 to 1.3851 from 1.3360 at 1.4538) in proximity, as well as mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, short term outlook remain neutral. A short term top could be around the corner. Sustained trading above 1.4535 cluster resistance is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed. On the downside, Break of 1.4402 support will confirm that an intraday top is in place and bring deeper decline towards 1.4124 support. Break will indicate that the whole rise from 1.3360 has likely completed too and bring deeper fall to 1.4014 support and below.

In the bigger picture, with medium term rising channel (support at 1.3611) remains intact, up trend from 1.1639 remains in force. Also, regardless of internal structure, such rise is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 which will overlap with 1.5 psychological resistance.

On the downside, below 1.4124 will warn that a short term top is in place and bring deeper correction. But a break below the mentioned medium term trend line is needed to be the first alert to indicate that such rally from 1.1639 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish.



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No Tags]]> http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/397/feed http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/396 http://www.thedailyforex.org/archive/396#comments Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 admin Forex Daily Technical Report

Non-Farm Payroll to Trigger Market Volatility and Carry Trades

Markets’ attention are all turning to today’s Non-farm payroll report. After a solid number of 110k job growths shown in Sep, economists expect job growth to slow slightly to 88k in Oct, with unemployment rate staying at 4.7%. Leading indicators of NFP generally suggest an upside surprise in today’s data. Wednesday’s ADP private employment report showed 106k job growths in the private sector which in turn indicates that the NFP could be in the region of 125-130k. Challenger report also showed a sharp fall in layoffs fro 71k to 63k. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing report also showed its employment component improved slightly from 51.7 to 52, highest since Apr. However, recent high readings in weekly jobless claims are putting some doubt on the optimistic view on NFP.

Nevertheless, considering the volatility in yen crosses and its correlation with the stock markets, reaction in the forex markets to the NFP may not be that straight forward. On the one hand, a strong NFP number will likely provide boost to the greenback as well as the stock market which in turn prompt selling of yen. In such case, high yields could be boosted up in respective yen crosses on carry trade and in turn put pressure back to the greenback. Hence, going long in carry trade yen crosses, like AUD/JPY could be a better choice in case of a strong NFP. On the other hand, a weak NFP will put some pressure on the dollar and the US stock markets, which could send the yen higher on risk aversion. Other currencies would then be pressured in their yen crosses, then limiting their rally against dollar. Hence, in such case, selling of USD/JPY could be a better choice.

Monthly Change in NFP (k)



Unemployment Rate (%)



Just released, Swiss CPI rose 0.9% mom, 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 0.8% mom, 1.2% yoy. Canadian employment report will also be looked into. Unemployment rate in Canada is expected to stay at a 30 year low of 5.9% with 12k job growths in Oct. Note that USD/CAD has just recovered mildly from multi decade low as oil prices retreats mildly but the down trend is still in play. Other data to be featured today include Manufacturing PMI in Eurozone and Construction PMI in UK as well as factory orders in US.

Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY) here.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.10; (P) 115.01; (R1) 115.55; More.

USD/JPY turns sideway after reaching as low as 114.35. As discussed before, with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, corrective rebound from 113.23 should have completed at 115.91 already, limited below mentioned 116.16 resistance as expected. Fall from there is now tentatively treated as resumed for 113.23 low first. Break will confirm this case and bring retest of 111.59 low. Meanwhile, above 115.15 will indicate lengthier consolidation would be seen before another fall.

In the bigger picture, note that prior break of long term rising trend line (101.65, 108.99) indicates the the whole up trend from 101.65 has completed at 124.13 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Subsequent sharp fall from 124.13 has made a short term low at 111.59 and rebound from there is treated as correction to this fall only.

Current fall from 117.93 is tentatively treated as resumption of whole fall from 124.13. Firm break of 111.59 low will confirm this case and bring decline to next cluster support zone of 61.8% retracement of 101.65 to 124.13 at 110.23 and 61.8% projection of 124.13 to 111.59 from 117.33 at 109.58 first.



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